Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.387780 2.889264 3.453784 4.133864 4.928313 5.824295 6.908429
2025-04-27 1.736019 2.385843 3.198680 4.279619 5.667484 7.376568 9.625662
2025-05-04 1.360895 2.083966 3.071737 4.495438 6.465890 9.063695 12.707492
2025-05-11 1.042684 1.762441 2.826813 4.473598 6.905160 10.301241 15.324266
2025-05-18 0.785522 1.458272 2.529766 4.298986 7.068118 11.138442 17.444203
2025-05-25 0.592472 1.203825 2.248662 4.081781 7.108442 11.767492 19.289854
2025-06-01 0.480852 1.060051 2.114153 4.064579 7.437027 12.836640 21.863696
2025-06-08 0.400249 0.952933 2.019477 4.091711 7.827737 14.023915 24.707639
2025-06-15 0.331255 0.850896 1.912654 4.074807 8.130800 15.083967 27.422870
2025-06-22 0.257893 0.719302 1.721569 3.866328 8.059644 15.497813 29.091522
2025-06-29 0.215047 0.645858 1.633893 3.841991 8.316431 16.488665 31.801960
2025-07-06 0.179698 0.580778 1.550914 3.812001 8.553444 17.456771 34.537390
2025-07-13 0.164524 0.566035 1.581765 4.033409 9.321756 19.479919 39.344580
2025-07-20 0.146377 0.538000 1.576306 4.174849 9.944853 21.287250 43.901882
2025-07-27 0.133850 0.522999 1.600066 4.385601 10.734062 23.473658 49.315090
2025-08-03 0.112974 0.475045 1.529597 4.364069 11.022813 24.707266 53.019698
2025-08-10 0.090285 0.412546 1.406212 4.193158 10.960787 25.233165 55.398346
2025-08-17 0.070673 0.352694 1.275682 3.980633 10.775138 25.484167 57.246421
2025-08-24 0.059883 0.322014 1.223705 3.963798 11.039533 26.686092 61.062608
2025-08-31 0.051761 0.298895 1.189833 3.990339 11.409338 28.138079 65.478279
2025-09-07 0.043969 0.273700 1.143346 3.973801 11.670573 29.372774 69.522583
2025-09-14 0.034253 0.234268 1.038519 3.769863 11.435622 29.491105 71.232310
2025-09-21 0.028963 0.214167 0.996468 3.746059 11.660599 30.657823 75.244577